A Dark Cloud Over D.C.: How Restaurants Are Fighting to Stay Afloat

There’s a pall over Washington, D.C.’s dining scene as new policy changes affect every part of running a restaurant. In the weeks since the new administration took power, headlines have been dominated by: The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) deportations, which have stirred up fears in countless restaurant kitchens that are heavily staffed by immigrants; the just-realized threat of tariffs imposed on China, Mexico, and Canada that will affect practically everything a restaurant needs, from produce, to chairs, to tequila; mass layoffs of federal workers, many of whom live in D.C.; and of course, soaring egg prices. 

According to several restaurateurs, these last few weeks have been as challenging as when pandemic lockdowns shuttered restaurants—and restaurants are still feeling the effects of the pandemic. (And as someone whose day job is at a newspaper, I’m getting whiplash from having to keep up with the constantly changing bad news.)

In March, the focus has been on federal layoffs and tariffs. The layoffs have prompted bars and restaurants to host events like Craft and Cries, where customers are encouraged to bring a knitting project and come and cry with others facing uncertainties and losing their jobs. The bars, of course, offer drink specials. 

Grabbing dinner with a friend at a mid-range Ethiopian restaurant in Adams Morgan whose federal contractor partner had just lost their job, she noted that restaurants like the one we were sitting in (where we dined for about $30 per head) would probably do well in these circumstances. Considering the vast range of dining options in D.C., I approached restaurateurs and chefs from both fast casual and fine dining restaurants—concepts ranging from 36 seats to 800 seats—about how the layoffs are affecting their operations. To illustrate how recent policy changes affect different concepts, I’ll address the concerns of each restaurateur, Johnny Spero, Amy Brandwein, Hakan Ilhan, and Jeff Bank, in this article in ascending order of operation size, from smallest to largest. One thing they all had in common: everyone spoke of the uncertainty of this particular moment and said they are bracing themselves for changes in customer behaviors in addition to higher costs of goods.

Trying to Meet Customers Where They’re At

Spero, whose fine dining Georgetown restaurant reopened in 2024 after a fire in August 2022 gutted it, is known for his elaborate multicourse, seafood-focused experiences. It has become an even more rarefied experience—Reverie’s original version had 64 seats, and Reverie 2.0 now has just 36. It is a restaurant for the most special of occasions, with a price tag to match. A tasting menu normally costs $245 per guest before tax and beverages, with a 22% service charge added onto the bill. Spero has introduced a lower-priced option, dubbed the Prelude Menu and costing $180 per person (only available Wednesdays and Thursdays), with fewer courses than the regular menu. 2024 had started off promising for Reverie, as there was a lot of excitement for the reopening, but the summer was slow. “Traditionally, election years aren’t really great for any restaurants, but at the beginning of 2025, it was like it never really clicked back,” said Spero. He cited his customers as not having the same disposable income as before. “As a small business, I don’t have any financial backing, we’ve always been pretty good at reading the room. Whenever something happens, I feel it, too, emotionally. Often, we’re cooking food that I can’t go out and eat myself,” he said.

Spero is also anxious about tariffs raising food prices across the board. Even though most of Reverie’s produce and seafood is sourced domestically, Spero anticipates distributors having to “spread the cost across the board.”

“The smaller menu might be a bit more approachable. But we’ve really been feeling it in the air, we’re in this gloomy spot,” he said, referencing the federal layoffs. “There are so many changes happening so quickly, probably the last thing people have to worry about is a Michelin-starred restaurant down an alleyway in Georgetown right now. But we’ve been pushing so hard for Reverie to be the voice of what the dining scene in D.C. can be,” said Spero.

Spero hopes that opening up Reverie to more people at a lower price point will help the restaurant keep its momentum. “We don’t want to stop, we don’t want to change who we are. I don’t want the D.C. dining scene to change, and all the special places just become steakhouses. I want to keep D.C. weird and fun.”

It’s Not Just Finances That Are Affected

Amy Brandwein is the chef and owner of sister concepts Centrolina and Piccolina. Centrolina opened in 2015, seats 70 guests, with a check average of $85 per person and Piccolina, which opened in 2019, has 45 seats, is more casual, serves breakfast, lunch, and dinner, and has a dinner check average of $35. Both restaurants’ kitchens are centered around their wood burning fires. “I think a lot of our guests are not that price conscious,” said Brandwein, who did not detect a dip in sales after the layoffs were first announced. “We’re in a very expensive district. But people are still staying home—since during the pandemic. And those changes haven’t really reversed themselves.”

As for the changes in recent weeks, “I’d say the climate is really bad, in terms of how people are feeling in D.C. We feel it very intensely. It affects the city so much. There’s a lot more than finances that that feeling can affect,” said Brandwein. “It’s been a dark, dark cloud over the city. There are some people that are happy but D.C. itself is overwhelmingly democratic. A large population here is not happy right now and that translates to an overall vibe in the city. I’ve been trying to be joyous. We have both Democratic and Republican people coming in, so it’s hard to slice and dice this, but when it comes to the D.C. restaurant population, they care about diversity, immigration issues, farming, and so when all of these issues are coming at us, and they’re issues that are making us worry, it takes up so much of our brains.”

“I’ve noticed a lot of people moving out of the city. That’s directly related to government employees losing their jobs. And consumers are very sensitive to what’s going on around them. When they hear about us having problems with other countries, and costs going up, it affects people’s spending patterns,” said Brandwein.

Tariffs and costs going up also throw into question the possibility of restaurateurs opening new restaurants. Brandwein described the ripple effect of how tariffs on steel (which can affect everything from canned goods to building materials) can affect both consumers and restaurateurs. “Everything gets more expensive, think of all the restaurant furniture that is shipped from China,” said Brandwein.

“Trying to understand the thought process of the customer in all of this is very important. Where are they living? Are they moving out of D.C.? If they’re in D.C., are they staying home?” said Brandwein. “Restaurants might be one of the most difficult businesses. You have to absorb everyone else’s issues. People don’t necessarily understand that restaurants are trying to adapt to all of these things in real time.”

The More Seats, the Better Chance a Restaurant Has

Large restaurants with lower check averages expect to see a higher volume of customers, but of course, would not be immune to rising costs of serving those customers, nor an overall diminishment in spending. Prolific D.C. restaurateur, Hakan Ilhan, the owner of Brasserie Liberté, the just-opened Alaya in Georgetown, and many restaurants in airports in D.C. and Philadelphia, has detected a “softness” at both airports and on the street. “I think psychologically, people are worried about their incomes and futures, and it’s playing to our sales. We’re probably down across the board 8% so far this year,” said Ilhan.

“This wasn’t a one-time layoff, and I don’t think the layoffs have concluded yet. I think the ripple effects will be felt until they’re really finalized. Will people be able to keep their retirements and insurance? There are a lot of unknowns. For qualified older federal employees, they would keep 80% of their retirement [funds], so for them, I’d say the impact wouldn’t be severe aside from the psychological impact. But if the majority of people laid off are not qualified for retirement, then you’re going to see an impact on the economy,” said Ilhan.

Ilhan reflected that these few weeks have been the most difficult times for his restaurants, “if you don’t take into account COVID.” The unknowns are vast—how long will this pall continue? As tariffs affect produce used in Alara’s kitchens, and tequila consumed at its bar, “Are we going to pass these charges onto our consumers? They don’t have extra change in their pockets because of the tariffs.”

I told Ilhan about my Ethiopian dining companion’s projection that restaurants with lower check averages will do better in these uncertain times. “Your friend is right. My concepts are priced very well. You can come to Alara today and get hummus with pita for $10 and eat a whole dinner for $25-30 per person. You can do a Taste of Alara menu at four courses for $54. And Alara has 158 seats. High end restaurants, you’ll likely see shrinkage of those. They’re in a difficult position. To pivot a fine dining restaurant to mid-level is very difficult to do. If you have a restaurant with only 26 seats and can only serve 50 customers on a busy night, how do you pay your rent or staff? You’d better have 120 seats and be busy on nights other than Friday and Saturday,” said Ilhan. “But D.C. dining will come back. A lot of restaurants will not make it, and we have too much supply right now. We need 25 to 30% less restaurants.”

Stick Around…For Decades

There is a silver lining for restaurateurs. “Our industry is very challenging, but sometimes these situations create location opportunities, and it can be better for negotiating when there’s so much negativity. For example, Alara, which we just opened, used to be Paolo’s Ristorante. They were there for 32 years. An opportunity like that doesn’t come every day, and we were able to take that location. At the end of the day, D.C. is the capital of the world. It will definitely come back in some form or shape. But there are a lot of question marks. If anyone tells you they know what’s going on, they would be wrong,” he said.

Happy hours have been busier at Carmine’s, which has a whopping 800 seats at its D.C. outpost. Its check average is $42 per person, according to Alicart’s New York-based CEO, Jeff Bank. The uptick in business at happy hour is because “people are coming out to network,” said Bank. “We do well because we’re very reasonably priced. Sitting in the middle is a good spot.”

Before I got on the phone with Bank, I had read an old interview he had given where he said Carmine’s secret to success was very long leases. I asked if this was still true. “Correct, all restaurant business starts with the lease. The hardest part for independent restaurateurs to understand is that the lease is the basis of everything.” 

Bank took advantage of the same silver lining Ilhan described during the pandemic. “My longest lease is 45 years, which I signed during the pandemic in Manhattan.” His restaurants are coming up on 35th, 33rd, 20th, and 15th year anniversaries (the latter is D.C.’s Carmine’s).

Over these decades, Bank has seen it all. He noted all the same uncertainties as the other restaurateurs in this article, but also wondered, “Will taxes be cut or will they go up? Will they sell office buildings?” While these will affect consumer spending he said, “When people are nervous, they still go out. People still celebrate birthdays and anniversaries by going out to dinner. When the financial crisis hit, all our business went up.”

And would Carmine’s legendary portions be affected due to tariffs? It hasn’t happened in 35 years. “We’ve never had shrinkflation,” said Bank. “We went bigger. We don’t lower our portions. We feel that as long as you’re consistent, that’s what people want.”

In the face of so much uncertainty, one can be assured that D.C. will ride things out, people will still celebrate the important occasions, and you will always be well-fed at Carmine’s.